The Rockies May Have Found A Long-Term Answer In Center Fiel
The Rockies are headed to another last place finish. Overall, the only sources of intrigue are how active theyll be as deadline sellers and whether theyll place below the Marlins as the worst team in the National League. That doesnt negate the po sibility of individual development. For a second straight year, Colorado looks like theyve developed a regular in the outfield amidst a generally rough season. Last seasons succe s story was fourth-place NL Rookie of the Year finisher . While his follow-up has not gone as planned, Colorado has gotten much better production out of another of his second-year outfield mates. seems to be turning the corner from an all-glove center fielder to a balanced, above-average everyday player. One could argue that Doyle had a succe sful rookie season in his own right. It didnt match up to Jones debut campaign, but Doyle looked like one of the sports 5-10 best outfield defenders from the time he was called up. He posted eye-popping grades (+19 Defensive Runs Saved, 15 runs above average by Statcast measurement) in a little more than 1000 innings. He earned a well-deserved Gold Glove. Stellar as Doyle was defensively, both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference graded him marginally above replacement in 2023. Among regulars, he was probably the least productive hitter in the majors. Doyle ranked last among 212 hitters (minimum 400 plate appearances) with a .250 on-base percentage. His .203 average was sixth-worst and he was in the bottom-10 in slugging percentage as well. Unlike other players with similar rate stats, Doyle played half his games at Coors Field. The park-adjusted wRC+ metric rated Doyle 57 percentage points below league average offensively. That was worst in the majors among regulars by a wide margin. was next closest at 40 points below average. The Rockies had reason to
Dave Valle Jersey believe Doyle would take a step forward offensively. He went to Division II Shepherd University. Doyle certainly wasnt facing many profe sional-caliber arms at that level. He was neverthele s a generally productive minor league hitter, albeit with significant strikeout i sues. Doyle is a good athlete who drew praise from prospect evaluators for plus or better raw power. His approach and pure hit tool have always been the biggest concerns, but he had the kind of profile that could lead a team to believe hed blo som later than most players. Doyle seems to have done just that in his age-26 season, likely progre sing even beyond Colorados expectations. He heads into the seasons unofficial second half with a .276/.343/.471 slash line acro s 377 plate appearances. His 15 homers are already five more than he managed over 431 trips to the plate last season. Doyle hasnt merely improved from one of the leagues worst hitters to a competent option in the bottom third of a lineup. His offense has jumped from the bottom of the league to better than average. Bud Black gave him some run at the top of order last month and had him in the middle third of the lineup going into the All-Star Break. An improved proce s is arguably even more encouraging than the results themselves are. Doyle hasnt simply ridden a streak of batted ball luck to good numbers. His .338 average on balls in play is .043 points higher than last years mark, but its not a number that screams for regre sion. Doyle is an elite runner who hits the ball fairly hard and plays in the sports biggest home park. He should be able to maintain a higher-than-average BABIP. The much bigger driver has been Doyles improved strike zone discipline. The righty hitter has both become more selective and taken a ma sive step forward with his contact skills. As a rookie, Doyle made contact 79% of the time he swung at a pitch inside the strike zone, a bottom-20 mark in the majors. Hes north of 86% this year, slightly higher than the 85.3% league average. Doyle has dramatically improved his contact rates against breaking stuff and is chasing pitches off the plate le s often than he did a year ago. That translates to a vastly improved strikeout and walk profile. After going down on strikes an untenable 35% of the time last season, hes punching out at a much more pa sable 24.9% rate. His walks are up from 5.1% to a decent 8.8% mark. No one would confuse Doyle for , but average strike zone numbers are more than sufficient. Theres never been much question about Doyles power or athleticism. Hes a fantastic defender. If he can maintain even a fringe-average hit tool, he has an All-Star ceiling. As is the case with most Rockies players, Doyle has pronounced home/road splits. He has done an inordinate amount of his offensive damage at Coors Field. Hes hitting .346/.407/.588 with a 20.8% strikeout rate over 173 plate appearances at home. Doyles road production (.217/.289/.372 with a 28.4% strikeout percentage acro s 204 PAs) is mediocre. His road numbers are at least partially weighed down by a modest .267 BABIP, though, and his strikeout and walk profile has improved no matter the setting. With regard to pitcher handedne s, Doyle has been above-average against both lefties (.289/.359/.470) and righties (.272/.338/.472). His walk rate is steady regardle s of platoon matchups, though hes been more strikeout prone against righties (26.7%, compared to 19.6% versus southpaws). Doyle has also hit for more power against right-handers, however, which has helped to mitigate some of the extra swings and mi ses. Any way you slice it, hes been a quality hitter regardle s of opponent. Whether Doyle can maintain or build off his early-season promise is one of the biggest second half storylines in Colorado. The Rox may not have much to play for as a team, but theyre looking for players to establish themselves. Colorado has locked in at shortstop and can keep at the hot corner for three more seasons. Doyle is in his first full MLB campaign and can be controlled for five years after this one. He has shown the talent to join Tovar, McMahon and hopefully Jones as part of the position player core. Maintaining this newfound approach would only increase the organizations confidence that Doyle fits with that group. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
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